A Modelling Tool to Improve the Policy Response on Issues Concerning Children and Young People

The primary objective of the research programme is to construct an evidence-based policy tool founded on: up-to-date research, a platform of real data representative of New Zealand society, using best practice in advanced methods, and developed in conjunction with international advisors and key end-users.

• Professor Peter Davis, Director, COMPASS
• Mr Roy Lay-Yee, Senior Research Fellow
• Dr Wendy Wrapson, Research Fellow
• Ms Janet Pearson, Statistician
• Ms Jessica Thomas, Statistician
• Mr Martin von Randow, Data Manager
• Mr Oliver Mannion, Computer Programmer
• Dr Gerry Cotterell, Research Centre Manager
• Dr Katharina Bauer, Administrator

The project team is currently supported by an International Advisory Group (IAG) comprising:

• Professor Nigel Gilbert, Director of the Centre for Research in Social Simulation & Director of the Institute of Advanced Studies, University of Surrey, United Kingdom
• Professor Laurie Brown, Research Director Health, National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM), University of Canberra, Australia
• Professor Klaus Troitzsch, Professor of Computer Applications in the Social Sciences, University of Koblenz-Landau, Germany
• Martin Spielauer, Statistics Canada
• Dr Flaminio Squazzoni, Assistant Professor of Economic Sociology, University of Brescia, Italy
• Dr Dimitris Ballas, Senior Lecturer, Department of Geography, University of Sheffield, United Kingdom

The modelling tool is designed to have practical application in policymaking and we are proactively engaging with New Zealand government agencies to ensure end-users are involved in the development and testing of the modelling tool. An End-User Advisory Group has been established comprising policy and research representatives from the Ministries of Education, Health, Justice and Social Development.

The first two years of the project (Phase 1) were spent developing a prototype model which comprised a dynamic simulation of early childhood (0–5 years) and the impact of family factors on health outcomes. The focus of Phase 2 is to extend the working prototype model from the 0–5 year age group to 0–10 years, to broaden its focus to educational, behavioural and developmental outcomes (in addition to health), and to integrate additional data to better represent contemporary New Zealand society.

JAMSIM (JAva MicroSIMulation), developed by our computer programmer, Oliver Mannion, specifically for Compass’ microsimulation projects, is a graphical desktop computer application for the execution, manipulation and interrogation of microsimulation models by non technical, policy orientated users. JAMSIM combines the leading open source statistical package R, and one of the foremost agent-based modelling (ABM) graphical tools Ascape. JAMSIM is available as an open source package for the creation of microsimulation models.

Further information can be found at: http://code.google.com/p/jamsim/

Developing a simulation tool for policymakers. The Modelling the Early Life Course Project (MEL-C)
COMPASS annual research colloquium
Statistics New Zealand House, Wellington
30 July 2010

This presentation describes the development of the prototype modelling tool, which comprises a dynamic simulation of early childhood, and then demonstrates its operation with an example taken from the impact of family factors on health service use.