Primary care in an ageing society: a modelling approach (PCASO)




Health Research Council of New Zealand


Peter Davis, Roy Lay-Yee, Janet Pearson, Martin von Randow, Sanat Pradhan


University of Auckland: David O'Sullivan


The overall aim of this study was to establish a microsimulation model of the primary healthcare system in New Zealand in its social context, and to test propositions about its functioning and development under different scenarios of demographic ageing. Central were three elements: demographic ageing and associated morbidity, family and community capacity to cope, and practitioner and system response. Data from existing sources were combined and used to estimate the key parameters for deployment in the microsimulation model. Advanced methodological techniques were applied in statistical matching, modelling, and simulation.


von Randow M, Davis P, Lay-Yee R, Pearson J (2012). Data Matching to Allocate Doctors to Patients in a Microsimulation Model of the Primary Care Process in New Zealand. Social Science Computer Review 30: 358-368, doi:10.1177/0894439311417153.

Pearson J, Lay-Yee R, Davis P, O’Sullivan D, von Randow M, Kerse N, Pradhan S (2011). Primary care in an ageing society: Building and testing a microsimulation model for policy purposes. Social Science Computer Review. doi:10.1177/0894439310370087.

Davis P, Lay-Yee R, Pearson J (2010). Using microsimulation to create a synthesised data set and test policy options: the case of health service effects under demographic ageing. Health Policy 97:267–27.